SW Essen 2–4 MSV Düsseldorf: Result & Stats

SW Essen

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

MSV Düsseldorf

2/19/2023

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 25Uhlenkrugstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

SW Essen45%

×Draw22%

MSV Düsseldorf33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SW EssenExpected goals in this matchMSV Düsseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.69

SW Essen

1.98

MSV Düsseldorf

1.69

SW Essen creates 17% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 20 away

2.10

creates per match

2.00

1.39

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

SW Essen

2.10

MSV Düsseldorf

2.00

allows per match

SW Essen

1.39

MSV Düsseldorf

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SW Essen+0.00on par

MSV Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SW Essen ↓

MSV Düsseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

SW Essen or draw

67%

SW Essen or MSV Düsseldorf

78%

Draw or MSV Düsseldorf

55%

Winning margin

SW Essen wins by 2+

25%

MSV Düsseldorf wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

SW Essen 1+ goals

86%

SW Essen 2+ goals

59%

SW Essen 3+ goals

31%

MSV Düsseldorf 1+ goals

82%

MSV Düsseldorf 2+ goals

50%

MSV Düsseldorf 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

SW Essen (draw refunded)

57%

MSV Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SW Essen at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.39 · 94 matches

MSV Düsseldorf away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SW Essen attack 2.10 + MSV Düsseldorf defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.98

MSV Düsseldorf attack 2.00 + SW Essen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SW Essen scores more

45%

level

22%

MSV Düsseldorf scores more

33%

SW Essen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SW Essen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff