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SW Essen vs Kleve — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SW Essen
SW Essen
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kleve
Kleve
11/17/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 15Uhlenkrugstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

SW Essen53%
×Draw21%
Kleve25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SW Essen
2.04
Kleve
1.35

SW Essen creates 51% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 89 away

creates per match

SW Essen
2.10
Kleve
1.31

allows per match

SW Essen
1.39
Kleve
1.97

finishing

SW Essen+0.00on par
Kleve+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SW Essen ↓

Kleve →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

SW Essen or draw
75%
SW Essen or Kleve
79%
Draw or Kleve
47%

Winning margin

SW Essen wins by 2+
31%
Kleve wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SW Essen 1+ goals
87%
SW Essen 2+ goals
60%
SW Essen 3+ goals
33%
Kleve 1+ goals
74%
Kleve 2+ goals
39%
Kleve 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

SW Essen (draw refunded)
68%
Kleve (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SW Essen at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.39 · 94 matches

Kleve away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.97 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SW Essen attack 2.10 + Kleve defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.04

Kleve attack 1.31 + SW Essen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SW Essen scores more
53%
level
21%
Kleve scores more
25%

SW Essen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SW Essen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SW Essen vs Kleve

SW Essen beat Kleve 4-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Uhlenkrugstadion in Essen.