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SW Essen vs KFC Uerdingen 05 — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SW Essen
SW Essen
FT
6 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
KFC Uerdingen 05
KFC Uerdingen 05
5/8/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 30Uhlenkrugstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

SW Essen45%
×Draw23%
KFC Uerdingen 0532%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SW Essen
1.75
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.45

SW Essen creates 21% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 53 away

creates per match

SW Essen
2.10
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.51

allows per match

SW Essen
1.39
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.40

finishing

SW Essen+0.00on par
KFC Uerdingen 05+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SW Essen ↓

KFC Uerdingen 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

SW Essen or draw
68%
SW Essen or KFC Uerdingen 05
77%
Draw or KFC Uerdingen 05
55%

Winning margin

SW Essen wins by 2+
24%
KFC Uerdingen 05 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SW Essen 1+ goals
83%
SW Essen 2+ goals
52%
SW Essen 3+ goals
25%
KFC Uerdingen 05 1+ goals
77%
KFC Uerdingen 05 2+ goals
42%
KFC Uerdingen 05 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

SW Essen (draw refunded)
58%
KFC Uerdingen 05 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SW Essen at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.39 · 94 matches

KFC Uerdingen 05 away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SW Essen attack 2.10 + KFC Uerdingen 05 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.75

KFC Uerdingen 05 attack 1.51 + SW Essen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SW Essen scores more
45%
level
23%
KFC Uerdingen 05 scores more
32%

SW Essen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SW Essen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SW Essen vs KFC Uerdingen 05

SW Essen beat KFC Uerdingen 05 6-4 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on May 8, 2024.

The match was played at Uhlenkrugstadion in Essen.