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SW Essen vs Jahn Hiesfeld — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SW Essen
SW Essen
CANC
13:00
Jahn Hiesfeld
Jahn Hiesfeld
5/23/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 42Uhlenkrugstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

SW Essen56%
×Draw20%
Jahn Hiesfeld24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SW Essen
2.28
Jahn Hiesfeld
1.44

SW Essen creates 58% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 22 away

creates per match

SW Essen
2.10
Jahn Hiesfeld
1.50

allows per match

SW Essen
1.39
Jahn Hiesfeld
2.45

finishing

SW Essen+0.00on par
Jahn Hiesfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SW Essen ↓

Jahn Hiesfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

SW Essen or draw
76%
SW Essen or Jahn Hiesfeld
80%
Draw or Jahn Hiesfeld
44%

Winning margin

SW Essen wins by 2+
35%
Jahn Hiesfeld wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SW Essen 1+ goals
90%
SW Essen 2+ goals
66%
SW Essen 3+ goals
39%
Jahn Hiesfeld 1+ goals
76%
Jahn Hiesfeld 2+ goals
42%
Jahn Hiesfeld 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

SW Essen (draw refunded)
70%
Jahn Hiesfeld (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SW Essen at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.39 · 94 matches

Jahn Hiesfeld away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SW Essen attack 2.10 + Jahn Hiesfeld defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.28

Jahn Hiesfeld attack 1.50 + SW Essen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

SW Essen scores more
56%
level
20%
Jahn Hiesfeld scores more
24%

SW Essen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "SW Essen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SW Essen face Jahn Hiesfeld (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein returns with SW Essen hosting Jahn Hiesfeld. Match starts May 23, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

SW Essen host Jahn Hiesfeld at Uhlenkrugstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.