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SW Essen vs FSV Duisburg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SW Essen
SW Essen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FSV Duisburg
FSV Duisburg
2/27/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 19Uhlenkrugstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

SW Essen64%
×Draw19%
FSV Duisburg17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SW Essen
2.40
FSV Duisburg
1.16

SW Essen creates 107% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 42 away

creates per match

SW Essen
2.10
FSV Duisburg
0.93

allows per match

SW Essen
1.39
FSV Duisburg
2.69

finishing

SW Essen+0.00on par
FSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SW Essen ↓

FSV Duisburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

SW Essen or draw
83%
SW Essen or FSV Duisburg
81%
Draw or FSV Duisburg
36%

Winning margin

SW Essen wins by 2+
42%
FSV Duisburg wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SW Essen 1+ goals
91%
SW Essen 2+ goals
69%
SW Essen 3+ goals
42%
FSV Duisburg 1+ goals
69%
FSV Duisburg 2+ goals
32%
FSV Duisburg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SW Essen (draw refunded)
79%
FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SW Essen at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.39 · 94 matches

FSV Duisburg away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SW Essen attack 2.10 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.40

FSV Duisburg attack 0.93 + SW Essen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

SW Essen scores more
64%
level
19%
FSV Duisburg scores more
17%

SW Essen at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "SW Essen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SW Essen vs FSV Duisburg

FSV Duisburg beat SW Essen 1-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Uhlenkrugstadion in Essen.