SW Essen vs Dusseldorf-West — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 22+ matches
SW Essen54%
Dusseldorf-West25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
SW Essen creates 50% more chances
Season form · 94 home / 22 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over71
- Under29
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes68
- No32
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
SW Essen ↓
Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
SW Essen at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.39 · 94 matches
Dusseldorf-West away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.32 · 22 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
SW Essen attack 2.10 + Dusseldorf-West defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.21
Dusseldorf-West attack 1.55 + SW Essen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.47
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
SW Essen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "SW Essen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Hilden
Germania Ratingen
KFC Uerdingen 05
Schonnebeck
SC St. Tönis
Meerbusch
BW Dingden
Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.
SF BaumbergSW Essen
Monheim
Sonsbeck
Büderich
Union Frintrop
Holzheimer SG
Kleve
Homberg
BiemenhorstIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
SW Essen host Dusseldorf-West on Sunday, 20 December 2020 at 13:15. The match is part of the Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020/2021 season.
SW Essen face Dusseldorf-West (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
Oberliga - Niederrhein returns with SW Essen hosting Dusseldorf-West. Match starts December 20, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
SW Essen host Dusseldorf-West at Uhlenkrugstadion.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.