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SVV Scheveningen vs Rijnsburgse Boys — Tweede Divisie 2019

SVV Scheveningen
SVV Scheveningen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Rijnsburgse Boys
Rijnsburgse Boys
3/2/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 24Sportpark Houtrust

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

SVV Scheveningen28%
×Draw23%
Rijnsburgse Boys49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SVV Scheveningen
1.33
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.82

Rijnsburgse Boys creates 37% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 99 away

creates per match

SVV Scheveningen
1.02
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.95

allows per match

SVV Scheveningen
1.69
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.64

finishing

SVV Scheveningen+0.00on par
Rijnsburgse Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SVV Scheveningen ↓

Rijnsburgse Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

SVV Scheveningen or draw
51%
SVV Scheveningen or Rijnsburgse Boys
77%
Draw or Rijnsburgse Boys
72%

Winning margin

SVV Scheveningen wins by 2+
12%
Rijnsburgse Boys wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

SVV Scheveningen 1+ goals
74%
SVV Scheveningen 2+ goals
38%
SVV Scheveningen 3+ goals
15%
Rijnsburgse Boys 1+ goals
84%
Rijnsburgse Boys 2+ goals
54%
Rijnsburgse Boys 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

SVV Scheveningen (draw refunded)
37%
Rijnsburgse Boys (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SVV Scheveningen at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.69 · 84 matches

Rijnsburgse Boys away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.64 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SVV Scheveningen attack 1.02 + Rijnsburgse Boys defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rijnsburgse Boys attack 1.95 + SVV Scheveningen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SVV Scheveningen scores more
28%
level
23%
Rijnsburgse Boys scores more
49%

Rijnsburgse Boys at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rijnsburgse Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SVV Scheveningen vs Rijnsburgse Boys

Rijnsburgse Boys beat SVV Scheveningen 2-0 in Tweede Divisie on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Houtrust in Den Haag.