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SVV Scheveningen vs Koninklijke HFC — Tweede Divisie 2019

SVV Scheveningen
SVV Scheveningen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Koninklijke HFC
Koninklijke HFC
10/26/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 11Sportpark Houtrust

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

SVV Scheveningen33%
×Draw25%
Koninklijke HFC42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SVV Scheveningen
1.31
Koninklijke HFC
1.52

Koninklijke HFC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 99 away

creates per match

SVV Scheveningen
1.04
Koninklijke HFC
1.34

allows per match

SVV Scheveningen
1.70
Koninklijke HFC
1.57

finishing

SVV Scheveningen+0.00on par
Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SVV Scheveningen ↓

Koninklijke HFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

SVV Scheveningen or draw
58%
SVV Scheveningen or Koninklijke HFC
75%
Draw or Koninklijke HFC
67%

Winning margin

SVV Scheveningen wins by 2+
14%
Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

SVV Scheveningen 1+ goals
73%
SVV Scheveningen 2+ goals
38%
SVV Scheveningen 3+ goals
14%
Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals
78%
Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals
45%
Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

SVV Scheveningen (draw refunded)
44%
Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SVV Scheveningen at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.70 · 83 matches

Koninklijke HFC away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.57 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SVV Scheveningen attack 1.04 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.34 + SVV Scheveningen defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SVV Scheveningen scores more
33%
level
25%
Koninklijke HFC scores more
42%

Koninklijke HFC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Koninklijke HFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: SVV Scheveningen 1–1 Koninklijke HFC

SVV Scheveningen and Koninklijke HFC drew 1-1 in Tweede Divisie on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Houtrust in Den Haag.