SVV Scheveningen 1–4 Almere City II: Result & Stats

SVV Scheveningen

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Almere City II

1/18/2025

Tweede Divisie · Round 19Sportpark Houtrust

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

SVV Scheveningen29%

×Draw23%

Almere City II47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SVV ScheveningenExpected goals in this matchAlmere City II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.77

SVV Scheveningen

1.35

Almere City II

1.77

Almere City II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 51 away

1.02

creates per match

1.86

1.69

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

SVV Scheveningen

1.02

Almere City II

1.86

allows per match

SVV Scheveningen

1.69

Almere City II

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SVV Scheveningen+0.00on par

Almere City II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SVV Scheveningen ↓

Almere City II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

SVV Scheveningen or draw

53%

SVV Scheveningen or Almere City II

77%

Draw or Almere City II

71%

Winning margin

SVV Scheveningen wins by 2+

13%

Almere City II wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

SVV Scheveningen 1+ goals

74%

SVV Scheveningen 2+ goals

39%

SVV Scheveningen 3+ goals

15%

Almere City II 1+ goals

83%

Almere City II 2+ goals

53%

Almere City II 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

SVV Scheveningen (draw refunded)

38%

Almere City II (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SVV Scheveningen at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.69 · 84 matches

Almere City II away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SVV Scheveningen attack 1.02 + Almere City II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.35

Almere City II attack 1.86 + SVV Scheveningen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SVV Scheveningen scores more

29%

level

23%

Almere City II scores more

47%

Almere City II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff