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Svoboda vs Sava Kranj — 3. SNL - West 2020

Svoboda
Svoboda
CANC
13:00
Sava Kranj
Sava Kranj
4/3/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Svoboda25%
×Draw20%
Sava Kranj55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svoboda
1.54
Sava Kranj
2.32

Sava Kranj creates 51% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

creates per match

Svoboda
1.57
Sava Kranj
2.40

allows per match

Svoboda
2.24
Sava Kranj
1.50

finishing

Svoboda+0.00on par
Sava Kranj+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svoboda ↓

Sava Kranj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Svoboda or draw
45%
Svoboda or Sava Kranj
80%
Draw or Sava Kranj
75%

Winning margin

Svoboda wins by 2+
11%
Sava Kranj wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Svoboda 1+ goals
79%
Svoboda 2+ goals
45%
Svoboda 3+ goals
20%
Sava Kranj 1+ goals
90%
Sava Kranj 2+ goals
67%
Sava Kranj 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Svoboda (draw refunded)
32%
Sava Kranj (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svoboda at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

Sava Kranj away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svoboda attack 1.57 + Sava Kranj defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sava Kranj attack 2.40 + Svoboda defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Svoboda scores more
25%
level
20%
Sava Kranj scores more
55%

Sava Kranj at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sava Kranj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Svoboda host Sava Kranj

April 3, 2021: Svoboda take on Sava Kranj in 3. SNL - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.