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Svilengrad vs Zagorets — Third League - Southeast 2018

Svilengrad
Svilengrad
FT
0 – 5
Zagorets
Zagorets
5/4/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 29Stadion Kolodruma (Svilengrad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Svilengrad34%
×Draw26%
Zagorets40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svilengrad
1.27
Zagorets
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 135 away

creates per match

Svilengrad
1.41
Zagorets
1.57

allows per match

Svilengrad
1.19
Zagorets
1.14

finishing

Svilengrad+0.00on par
Zagorets+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svilengrad ↓

Zagorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Svilengrad or draw
60%
Svilengrad or Zagorets
74%
Draw or Zagorets
66%

Winning margin

Svilengrad wins by 2+
15%
Zagorets wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Svilengrad 1+ goals
72%
Svilengrad 2+ goals
36%
Svilengrad 3+ goals
14%
Zagorets 1+ goals
75%
Zagorets 2+ goals
40%
Zagorets 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Svilengrad (draw refunded)
47%
Zagorets (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svilengrad at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Zagorets away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svilengrad attack 1.41 + Zagorets defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

Zagorets attack 1.57 + Svilengrad defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Svilengrad scores more
34%
level
26%
Zagorets scores more
40%

Zagorets at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zagorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Svilengrad 0–5 Zagorets

Zagorets beat Svilengrad 5-0 in Third League - Southeast on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Kolodruma (Svilengrad).