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Svilengrad vs Neftochimic Burgas — Third League - Southeast 2018

Svilengrad
Svilengrad
FT
0 – 0
Neftochimic Burgas
Neftochimic Burgas
12/1/2018Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 17Stadion Kolodruma (Svilengrad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Svilengrad32%
×Draw26%
Neftochimic Burgas42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svilengrad
1.22
Neftochimic Burgas
1.45

Neftochimic Burgas creates 19% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 35 away

creates per match

Svilengrad
1.41
Neftochimic Burgas
1.71

allows per match

Svilengrad
1.19
Neftochimic Burgas
1.03

finishing

Svilengrad+0.00on par
Neftochimic Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svilengrad ↓

Neftochimic Burgas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Svilengrad or draw
58%
Svilengrad or Neftochimic Burgas
74%
Draw or Neftochimic Burgas
68%

Winning margin

Svilengrad wins by 2+
13%
Neftochimic Burgas wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Svilengrad 1+ goals
70%
Svilengrad 2+ goals
34%
Svilengrad 3+ goals
12%
Neftochimic Burgas 1+ goals
77%
Neftochimic Burgas 2+ goals
42%
Neftochimic Burgas 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Svilengrad (draw refunded)
43%
Neftochimic Burgas (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svilengrad at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Neftochimic Burgas away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.03 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svilengrad attack 1.41 + Neftochimic Burgas defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.22

Neftochimic Burgas attack 1.71 + Svilengrad defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Svilengrad scores more
32%
level
26%
Neftochimic Burgas scores more
42%

Neftochimic Burgas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Neftochimic Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Svilengrad 0–0 Neftochimic Burgas

Svilengrad and Neftochimic Burgas drew 0-0 in Third League - Southeast on December 1, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Kolodruma (Svilengrad).