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Svilengrad vs Levski Karlovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Svilengrad
Svilengrad
FT
2 – 1
Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
9/14/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 7Stadion Kolodruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Svilengrad54%
×Draw23%
Levski Karlovo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svilengrad
1.81
Levski Karlovo
1.11

Svilengrad creates 63% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 136 away

creates per match

Svilengrad
1.41
Levski Karlovo
1.04

allows per match

Svilengrad
1.19
Levski Karlovo
2.22

finishing

Svilengrad+0.00on par
Levski Karlovo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svilengrad ↓

Levski Karlovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Svilengrad or draw
77%
Svilengrad or Levski Karlovo
77%
Draw or Levski Karlovo
46%

Winning margin

Svilengrad wins by 2+
30%
Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Svilengrad 1+ goals
84%
Svilengrad 2+ goals
54%
Svilengrad 3+ goals
27%
Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
67%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
30%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Svilengrad (draw refunded)
70%
Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svilengrad at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Levski Karlovo away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.22 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svilengrad attack 1.41 + Levski Karlovo defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.81

Levski Karlovo attack 1.04 + Svilengrad defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Svilengrad scores more
54%
level
23%
Levski Karlovo scores more
23%

Svilengrad at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Svilengrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svilengrad 2 – 1 Levski Karlovo

Svilengrad beat Levski Karlovo 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Kolodruma in Svilengrad.