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Svilengrad vs Karnobat — Third League - Southeast 2018

Svilengrad
Svilengrad
FT
4 – 0
Karnobat
Karnobat
10/31/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 14Stadion Kolodruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Svilengrad61%
×Draw21%
Karnobat18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svilengrad
2.00
Karnobat
0.99

Svilengrad creates 102% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 118 away

creates per match

Svilengrad
1.41
Karnobat
0.79

allows per match

Svilengrad
1.19
Karnobat
2.58

finishing

Svilengrad+0.00on par
Karnobat+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svilengrad ↓

Karnobat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Svilengrad or draw
82%
Svilengrad or Karnobat
79%
Draw or Karnobat
39%

Winning margin

Svilengrad wins by 2+
37%
Karnobat wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Svilengrad 1+ goals
86%
Svilengrad 2+ goals
59%
Svilengrad 3+ goals
32%
Karnobat 1+ goals
63%
Karnobat 2+ goals
26%
Karnobat 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Svilengrad (draw refunded)
77%
Karnobat (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svilengrad at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Karnobat away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svilengrad attack 1.41 + Karnobat defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.00

Karnobat attack 0.79 + Svilengrad defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Svilengrad scores more
61%
level
21%
Karnobat scores more
18%

Svilengrad at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Svilengrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Svilengrad vs Karnobat

Svilengrad beat Karnobat 4-0 in Third League - Southeast on October 31, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Kolodruma in Svilengrad.