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Svilengrad vs Borislav 2009 — Third League - Southeast 2018

Svilengrad
Svilengrad
FT
2 – 1
Borislav 2009
Borislav 2009
5/24/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 33Stadion Kolodruma (Svilengrad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Svilengrad58%
×Draw22%
Borislav 200920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svilengrad
1.96
Borislav 2009
1.05

Svilengrad creates 87% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 79 away

creates per match

Svilengrad
1.41
Borislav 2009
0.91

allows per match

Svilengrad
1.19
Borislav 2009
2.52

finishing

Svilengrad+0.00on par
Borislav 2009+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svilengrad ↓

Borislav 2009 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Svilengrad or draw
80%
Svilengrad or Borislav 2009
78%
Draw or Borislav 2009
42%

Winning margin

Svilengrad wins by 2+
35%
Borislav 2009 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Svilengrad 1+ goals
86%
Svilengrad 2+ goals
58%
Svilengrad 3+ goals
31%
Borislav 2009 1+ goals
65%
Borislav 2009 2+ goals
28%
Borislav 2009 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Svilengrad (draw refunded)
75%
Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svilengrad at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Borislav 2009 away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.52 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svilengrad attack 1.41 + Borislav 2009 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 1.96

Borislav 2009 attack 0.91 + Svilengrad defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Svilengrad scores more
58%
level
22%
Borislav 2009 scores more
20%

Svilengrad at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Svilengrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Svilengrad 2–1 Borislav 2009

Svilengrad beat Borislav 2009 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on May 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Kolodruma (Svilengrad).