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Svidník vs Tatran Prešov — 3. liga - East 2020

Svidník
Svidník
CANC
14:30
Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
5/2/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Svidník20%
×Draw20%
Tatran Prešov60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svidník
1.22
Tatran Prešov
2.21

Tatran Prešov creates 81% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 23 away

creates per match

Svidník
1.27
Tatran Prešov
2.78

allows per match

Svidník
1.65
Tatran Prešov
1.17

finishing

Svidník+0.00on par
Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svidník ↓

Tatran Prešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Svidník or draw
40%
Svidník or Tatran Prešov
80%
Draw or Tatran Prešov
80%

Winning margin

Svidník wins by 2+
8%
Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Svidník 1+ goals
70%
Svidník 2+ goals
34%
Svidník 3+ goals
12%
Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
89%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
65%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Svidník (draw refunded)
25%
Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svidník at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

Tatran Prešov away — creates 2.78, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svidník attack 1.27 + Tatran Prešov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

Tatran Prešov attack 2.78 + Svidník defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Svidník scores more
20%
level
20%
Tatran Prešov scores more
60%

Tatran Prešov at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Svidník host Tatran Prešov

May 2, 2021: Svidník take on Tatran Prešov in 3. liga - East. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.