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Svidník vs Stará Ľubovňa — 3. liga - East 2020

Svidník
Svidník
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stará Ľubovňa
Stará Ľubovňa
10/1/20233. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 9Mestský Futbalový Štadión Svidník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Svidník37%
×Draw24%
Stará Ľubovňa39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svidník
1.53
Stará Ľubovňa
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 14 away

creates per match

Svidník
1.27
Stará Ľubovňa
1.50

allows per match

Svidník
1.65
Stará Ľubovňa
1.79

finishing

Svidník+0.00on par
Stará Ľubovňa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svidník ↓

Stará Ľubovňa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Svidník or draw
61%
Svidník or Stará Ľubovňa
76%
Draw or Stará Ľubovňa
63%

Winning margin

Svidník wins by 2+
18%
Stará Ľubovňa wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Svidník 1+ goals
78%
Svidník 2+ goals
45%
Svidník 3+ goals
20%
Stará Ľubovňa 1+ goals
79%
Stará Ľubovňa 2+ goals
46%
Stará Ľubovňa 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Svidník (draw refunded)
49%
Stará Ľubovňa (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svidník at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

Stará Ľubovňa away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svidník attack 1.27 + Stará Ľubovňa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.53

Stará Ľubovňa attack 1.50 + Svidník defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Svidník scores more
37%
level
24%
Stará Ľubovňa scores more
39%

Stará Ľubovňa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stará Ľubovňa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Svidník vs Stará Ľubovňa

Svidník and Stará Ľubovňa drew 0-0 in 3. liga - East on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Mestský Futbalový Štadión Svidník in Svidník.