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Svidník vs Spišská Nová Ves — 3. liga - East 2020

Svidník
Svidník
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Spišská Nová Ves
Spišská Nová Ves
4/24/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 22Mestský Futbalový Štadión Svidník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Svidník25%
×Draw24%
Spišská Nová Ves51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svidník
1.09
Spišská Nová Ves
1.69

Spišská Nová Ves creates 55% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 64 away

creates per match

Svidník
1.27
Spišská Nová Ves
1.73

allows per match

Svidník
1.65
Spišská Nová Ves
0.91

finishing

Svidník+0.00on par
Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svidník ↓

Spišská Nová Ves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Svidník or draw
49%
Svidník or Spišská Nová Ves
76%
Draw or Spišská Nová Ves
75%

Winning margin

Svidník wins by 2+
9%
Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Svidník 1+ goals
66%
Svidník 2+ goals
30%
Svidník 3+ goals
10%
Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals
82%
Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals
50%
Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Svidník (draw refunded)
32%
Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svidník at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

Spišská Nová Ves away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.91 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svidník attack 1.27 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.09

Spišská Nová Ves attack 1.73 + Svidník defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Svidník scores more
25%
level
24%
Spišská Nová Ves scores more
51%

Spišská Nová Ves at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Spišská Nová Ves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Svidník 2–0 Spišská Nová Ves

Svidník beat Spišská Nová Ves 2-0 in 3. liga - East on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Mestský Futbalový Štadión Svidník in Svidník.