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Svidník vs Snina — 3. liga - East 2020

Svidník
Svidník
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Snina
Snina
5/8/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 24Mestský Futbalový Štadión Svidník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Svidník39%
×Draw25%
Snina36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svidník
1.45
Snina
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 79 away

creates per match

Svidník
1.27
Snina
1.15

allows per match

Svidník
1.65
Snina
1.63

finishing

Svidník+0.00on par
Snina+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svidník ↓

Snina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Svidník or draw
64%
Svidník or Snina
75%
Draw or Snina
61%

Winning margin

Svidník wins by 2+
18%
Snina wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Svidník 1+ goals
77%
Svidník 2+ goals
42%
Svidník 3+ goals
18%
Snina 1+ goals
75%
Snina 2+ goals
41%
Snina 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Svidník (draw refunded)
51%
Snina (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svidník at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

Snina away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.63 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svidník attack 1.27 + Snina defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.45

Snina attack 1.15 + Svidník defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Svidník scores more
39%
level
25%
Snina scores more
36%

Svidník at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Svidník will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Svidník 3–1 Snina

Svidník beat Snina 3-1 in 3. liga - East on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Mestský Futbalový Štadión Svidník in Svidník.