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Svidník vs Raslavice — 3. liga - East 2020

Svidník
Svidník
FT
3 – 0
Raslavice
Raslavice
2/27/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 15Futbalový štadión Humenné umela trava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Svidník50%
×Draw22%
Raslavice28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svidník
1.92
Raslavice
1.40

Svidník creates 37% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 28 away

creates per match

Svidník
1.27
Raslavice
1.14

allows per match

Svidník
1.65
Raslavice
2.57

finishing

Svidník+0.00on par
Raslavice+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svidník ↓

Raslavice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Svidník or draw
72%
Svidník or Raslavice
78%
Draw or Raslavice
50%

Winning margin

Svidník wins by 2+
28%
Raslavice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Svidník 1+ goals
85%
Svidník 2+ goals
57%
Svidník 3+ goals
30%
Raslavice 1+ goals
75%
Raslavice 2+ goals
41%
Raslavice 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Svidník (draw refunded)
64%
Raslavice (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svidník at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

Raslavice away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svidník attack 1.27 + Raslavice defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.92

Raslavice attack 1.14 + Svidník defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Svidník scores more
50%
level
22%
Raslavice scores more
28%

Svidník at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Svidník will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Svidník vs Raslavice

Svidník beat Raslavice 3-0 in 3. liga - East on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Humenné umela trava in Humenné.