Svidník 2–0 Partizán Bardejov: Result & Stats

Svidník

FT

2 – 0

Partizán Bardejov

5/14/2023

3. liga - East · East - 26Mestský Futbalový Štadión Svidník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Svidník51%

×Draw22%

Partizán Bardejov26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SvidníkExpected goals in this matchPartizán Bardejov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.32

Svidník

1.92

Partizán Bardejov

1.32

Svidník creates 45% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 44 away

1.27

creates per match

1.00

1.65

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Svidník

1.27

Partizán Bardejov

1.00

allows per match

Svidník

1.65

Partizán Bardejov

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Svidník+0.00on par

Partizán Bardejov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svidník ↓

Partizán Bardejov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Svidník or draw

74%

Svidník or Partizán Bardejov

78%

Draw or Partizán Bardejov

49%

Winning margin

Svidník wins by 2+

29%

Partizán Bardejov wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Svidník 1+ goals

85%

Svidník 2+ goals

57%

Svidník 3+ goals

30%

Partizán Bardejov 1+ goals

73%

Partizán Bardejov 2+ goals

38%

Partizán Bardejov 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Svidník (draw refunded)

66%

Partizán Bardejov (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svidník at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

Partizán Bardejov away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svidník attack 1.27 + Partizán Bardejov defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.92

Partizán Bardejov attack 1.00 + Svidník defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Svidník scores more

51%

level

22%

Partizán Bardejov scores more

26%

Svidník at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Svidník will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff