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Svidník vs Humenné — 3. liga - East 2020

Svidník
Svidník
CANC
15:00
Humenné
Humenné
6/13/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Svidník15%
×Draw18%
Humenné67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svidník
1.00
Humenné
2.33

Humenné creates 133% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 19 away

creates per match

Svidník
1.27
Humenné
3.00

allows per match

Svidník
1.65
Humenné
0.74

finishing

Svidník+0.00on par
Humenné+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svidník ↓

Humenné →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Svidník or draw
33%
Svidník or Humenné
82%
Draw or Humenné
85%

Winning margin

Svidník wins by 2+
5%
Humenné wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Svidník 1+ goals
63%
Svidník 2+ goals
26%
Svidník 3+ goals
8%
Humenné 1+ goals
90%
Humenné 2+ goals
67%
Humenné 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Svidník (draw refunded)
18%
Humenné (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svidník at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

Humenné away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svidník attack 1.27 + Humenné defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.00

Humenné attack 3.00 + Svidník defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Svidník scores more
15%
level
18%
Humenné scores more
67%

Humenné at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Humenné will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Svidník host Humenné

June 13, 2021: Svidník take on Humenné in 3. liga - East. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.