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Svidník vs Fiľakovo — 3. liga - East 2020

Svidník
Svidník
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Fiľakovo
Fiľakovo
6/3/20233. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 29Mestský Futbalový Štadión Svidník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Svidník44%
×Draw25%
Fiľakovo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svidník
1.60
Fiľakovo
1.30

Svidník creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 44 away

creates per match

Svidník
1.27
Fiľakovo
0.95

allows per match

Svidník
1.65
Fiľakovo
1.93

finishing

Svidník+0.00on par
Fiľakovo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svidník ↓

Fiľakovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Svidník or draw
69%
Svidník or Fiľakovo
75%
Draw or Fiľakovo
56%

Winning margin

Svidník wins by 2+
23%
Fiľakovo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Svidník 1+ goals
80%
Svidník 2+ goals
47%
Svidník 3+ goals
22%
Fiľakovo 1+ goals
73%
Fiľakovo 2+ goals
37%
Fiľakovo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Svidník (draw refunded)
59%
Fiľakovo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svidník at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

Fiľakovo away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svidník attack 1.27 + Fiľakovo defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.60

Fiľakovo attack 0.95 + Svidník defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Svidník scores more
44%
level
25%
Fiľakovo scores more
31%

Svidník at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Svidník will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Svidník vs Fiľakovo

Fiľakovo beat Svidník 4-1 in 3. liga - East on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Mestský Futbalový Štadión Svidník in Svidník.