SVG Reichenau 1–0 Seekirchen: Result & Stats

SVG Reichenau

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Seekirchen

S. Milenkovic 25'

8/31/2018

Regionalliga - West · Round 7Kunstrasen Reichenau Hauptspielfeld (Innsbruck)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

SVG Reichenau48%

×Draw23%

Seekirchen29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SVG ReichenauExpected goals in this matchSeekirchen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.41

SVG Reichenau

1.88

Seekirchen

1.41

SVG Reichenau creates 33% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 31 away

2.02

creates per match

1.90

0.92

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

SVG Reichenau

2.02

Seekirchen

1.90

allows per match

SVG Reichenau

0.92

Seekirchen

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SVG Reichenau+0.00on par

Seekirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SVG Reichenau ↓

Seekirchen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

SVG Reichenau or draw

71%

SVG Reichenau or Seekirchen

77%

Draw or Seekirchen

52%

Winning margin

SVG Reichenau wins by 2+

27%

Seekirchen wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

SVG Reichenau 1+ goals

85%

SVG Reichenau 2+ goals

56%

SVG Reichenau 3+ goals

29%

Seekirchen 1+ goals

76%

Seekirchen 2+ goals

41%

Seekirchen 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

SVG Reichenau (draw refunded)

63%

Seekirchen (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SVG Reichenau at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.92 · 61 matches

Seekirchen away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.74 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SVG Reichenau attack 2.02 + Seekirchen defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.88

Seekirchen attack 1.90 + SVG Reichenau defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SVG Reichenau scores more

48%

level

23%

Seekirchen scores more

29%

SVG Reichenau at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SVG Reichenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

S. Milenkovic

58'

D. Einkemmer← M. Kovatsch

59'

J. Höller← T. Wechselberger

69'

P. Schuchter← F. Kraxner

70'

A. Wassung← F. Eliasch

74'

A. Kremer← B. Biribauer

90+1'

V. Mauro← P. Thurnbichler

SVG

Seekirchen

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: G. Glänzer

58'▲D. Einkemmer←▼M. Kovatsch

69'▲P. Schuchter←▼F. Kraxner

90+1'▲V. Mauro←▼P. Thurnbichler

SVG Reichenau substitutes

EinkemmerSchuchterMauroSanterKeles

Manager: A. Schriebl

59'▲J. Höller←▼T. Wechselberger

70'▲A. Wassung←▼F. Eliasch

74'▲A. Kremer←▼B. Biribauer

Seekirchen substitutes

HöllerWassungKremerSmoljanTittler

Match Recap: SVG Reichenau vs Seekirchen

SVG Reichenau beat Seekirchen 1-0 in Regionalliga - West on August 31, 2018.

Goals: S. Milenkovic (25').

The match was played at Kunstrasen Reichenau Hauptspielfeld (Innsbruck).

SVG Reichenau vs Seekirchen — Regionalliga - West 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: SVG Reichenau vs Seekirchen