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SVG Reichenau vs Langenegg — Regionalliga - West 2018

SVG Reichenau
SVG Reichenau
FT
3 – 1
Langenegg
Langenegg
8/18/2018Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · Round 5Kunstrasen Reichenau Hauptspielfeld (Innsbruck)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

SVG Reichenau66%
×Draw18%
Langenegg16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SVG Reichenau
2.53
Langenegg
1.19

SVG Reichenau creates 113% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 24 away

creates per match

SVG Reichenau
2.02
Langenegg
1.46

allows per match

SVG Reichenau
0.92
Langenegg
3.04

finishing

SVG Reichenau+0.00on par
Langenegg+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SVG Reichenau ↓

Langenegg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

SVG Reichenau or draw
84%
SVG Reichenau or Langenegg
82%
Draw or Langenegg
34%

Winning margin

SVG Reichenau wins by 2+
44%
Langenegg wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SVG Reichenau 1+ goals
92%
SVG Reichenau 2+ goals
71%
SVG Reichenau 3+ goals
46%
Langenegg 1+ goals
70%
Langenegg 2+ goals
33%
Langenegg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SVG Reichenau (draw refunded)
80%
Langenegg (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SVG Reichenau at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.92 · 61 matches

Langenegg away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SVG Reichenau attack 2.02 + Langenegg defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.53

Langenegg attack 1.46 + SVG Reichenau defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

SVG Reichenau scores more
66%
level
18%
Langenegg scores more
16%

SVG Reichenau at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "SVG Reichenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - West: SVG Reichenau 3–1 Langenegg

SVG Reichenau beat Langenegg 3-1 in Regionalliga - West on August 18, 2018.

The match was played at Kunstrasen Reichenau Hauptspielfeld (Innsbruck).