SVG Reichenau 0–2 Dornbirn: Result & Stats

SVG Reichenau

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dornbirn

T. Herbály 56'

S. Santin 45'

9/21/2024

Regionalliga - West · West - 8Kunstrasen Reichenau Hauptspielfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

SVG Reichenau46%

×Draw24%

Dornbirn30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SVG ReichenauExpected goals in this matchDornbirn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.28

SVG Reichenau

1.63

Dornbirn

1.28

SVG Reichenau creates 27% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 47 away

2.02

creates per match

1.64

0.92

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

SVG Reichenau

2.02

Dornbirn

1.64

allows per match

SVG Reichenau

0.92

Dornbirn

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SVG Reichenau+0.00on par

Dornbirn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SVG Reichenau ↓

Dornbirn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

SVG Reichenau or draw

70%

SVG Reichenau or Dornbirn

76%

Draw or Dornbirn

54%

Winning margin

SVG Reichenau wins by 2+

24%

Dornbirn wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

SVG Reichenau 1+ goals

80%

SVG Reichenau 2+ goals

48%

SVG Reichenau 3+ goals

22%

Dornbirn 1+ goals

72%

Dornbirn 2+ goals

37%

Dornbirn 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

SVG Reichenau (draw refunded)

60%

Dornbirn (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SVG Reichenau at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.92 · 61 matches

Dornbirn away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.23 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SVG Reichenau attack 2.02 + Dornbirn defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.63

Dornbirn attack 1.64 + SVG Reichenau defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SVG Reichenau scores more

46%

level

24%

Dornbirn scores more

30%

SVG Reichenau at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SVG Reichenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

B. Brzaj← N. Mathis

45'

S. Santin

56'

T. Herbály

57'

F. Kraxner← F. Binder

68'

Reinaldo← J. Mbanga

75'

S. Suprun← D. Glänzer

87'

S. Calim← T. Herbály

87'

O. Kaya← S. Santin

SVG

Dornbirn

⚽

▼

Santin

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Glänzer

57'▲F. Kraxner←▼F. Binder

75'▲S. Suprun←▼D. Glänzer

SVG Reichenau substitutes

KraxnerSuprunWertschnigBajroKohlerCosta

Manager: E. Orie

39'▲B. Brzaj←▼N. Mathis

68'▲Reinaldo←▼J. Mbanga

87'▲S. Calim←▼T. Herbály

87'▲O. Kaya←▼S. Santin

Dornbirn substitutes

BrzajReinaldoCalimKayaSchulz

Match Recap: SVG Reichenau vs Dornbirn

Dornbirn beat SVG Reichenau 2-0 in Regionalliga - West on September 21, 2024.

Goals: S. Santin (45'), T. Herbály (56').

The match was played at Kunstrasen Reichenau Hauptspielfeld in Innsbruck.

SVG Reichenau vs Dornbirn — Regionalliga - West 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: SVG Reichenau vs Dornbirn