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Svetkavitsa Targovishte vs Suvorovo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
FT
2 – 1
Suvorovo
Suvorovo
4/26/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 26Stadion Dimitar Burkov (Targovishte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte30%
×Draw25%
Suvorovo45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.21
Suvorovo
1.56

Suvorovo creates 29% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 20 away

creates per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.51
Suvorovo
1.85

allows per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.26
Suvorovo
0.90

finishing

Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par
Suvorovo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svetkavitsa Targovishte ↓

Suvorovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Svetkavitsa Targovishte or draw
55%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte or Suvorovo
75%
Draw or Suvorovo
70%

Winning margin

Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+
12%
Suvorovo wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals
70%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals
34%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals
12%
Suvorovo 1+ goals
79%
Suvorovo 2+ goals
46%
Suvorovo 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)
39%
Suvorovo (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Suvorovo away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.51 + Suvorovo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.21

Suvorovo attack 1.85 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more
30%
level
25%
Suvorovo scores more
45%

Suvorovo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Suvorovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2–1 Suvorovo

Svetkavitsa Targovishte beat Suvorovo 2-1 in Third League - Northeast on April 26, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Burkov (Targovishte).