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Svetkavitsa Targovishte vs Spartak Varna II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Spartak Varna II
Spartak Varna II
10/5/2025Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 8Stadion Dimitar Burkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte45%
×Draw25%
Spartak Varna II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.60
Spartak Varna II
1.25

Svetkavitsa Targovishte creates 28% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 70 away

creates per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.51
Spartak Varna II
1.24

allows per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.26
Spartak Varna II
1.70

finishing

Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par
Spartak Varna II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svetkavitsa Targovishte ↓

Spartak Varna II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Svetkavitsa Targovishte or draw
70%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte or Spartak Varna II
75%
Draw or Spartak Varna II
55%

Winning margin

Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+
23%
Spartak Varna II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals
80%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals
47%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals
22%
Spartak Varna II 1+ goals
71%
Spartak Varna II 2+ goals
36%
Spartak Varna II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)
60%
Spartak Varna II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Spartak Varna II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.70 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.51 + Spartak Varna II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.60

Spartak Varna II attack 1.24 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more
45%
level
25%
Spartak Varna II scores more
30%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Svetkavitsa Targovishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Svetkavitsa Targovishte 0–2 Spartak Varna II

Spartak Varna II beat Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2-0 in Third League - Northeast on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Burkov in Targovishte.