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Svetkavitsa Targovishte vs Lokomotiv Ruse — Third League - Northeast 2018

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
3/2/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 17Stadion Dimitar Burkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte61%
×Draw20%
Lokomotiv Ruse18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
2.11
Lokomotiv Ruse
1.06

Svetkavitsa Targovishte creates 99% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 52 away

creates per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.51
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.87

allows per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.26
Lokomotiv Ruse
2.71

finishing

Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svetkavitsa Targovishte ↓

Lokomotiv Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Svetkavitsa Targovishte or draw
82%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte or Lokomotiv Ruse
80%
Draw or Lokomotiv Ruse
39%

Winning margin

Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+
38%
Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals
88%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals
62%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals
35%
Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
65%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
29%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)
77%
Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Lokomotiv Ruse away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.51 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.11

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.87 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more
61%
level
20%
Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
18%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Svetkavitsa Targovishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Svetkavitsa Targovishte vs Lokomotiv Ruse

Svetkavitsa Targovishte and Lokomotiv Ruse drew 0-0 in Third League - Northeast on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Burkov in Targovishte.