Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2–0 Kubrat: Result & Stats

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Kubrat

10/21/2023

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 11Stadion Dimitar Burkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte70%

×Draw17%

Kubrat13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Svetkavitsa TargovishteExpected goals in this matchKubrat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.00

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

2.52

Kubrat

1.00

Svetkavitsa Targovishte creates 152% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 46 away

1.51

creates per match

0.74

1.26

allows per match

3.54

creates per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

1.51

Kubrat

0.74

allows per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte

1.26

Kubrat

3.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par

Kubrat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svetkavitsa Targovishte ↓

Kubrat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Svetkavitsa Targovishte or draw

87%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte or Kubrat

83%

Draw or Kubrat

30%

Winning margin

Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+

48%

Kubrat wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals

92%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals

71%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals

45%

Kubrat 1+ goals

63%

Kubrat 2+ goals

26%

Kubrat 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)

84%

Kubrat (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Kubrat away — creates 0.74, concedes 3.54 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.51 + Kubrat defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 2.52

Kubrat attack 0.74 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more

70%

level

17%

Kubrat scores more

13%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Svetkavitsa Targovishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff