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Svetkavitsa Targovishte vs Benkovski Byala — Third League - Northeast 2018

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
Svetkavitsa Targovishte
CANC
12:00
Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
11/7/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 13Stadion Dimitar Burkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Svetkavitsa Targovishte75%
×Draw15%
Benkovski Byala9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
2.56
Benkovski Byala
0.78

Svetkavitsa Targovishte creates 228% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 20 away

creates per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.51
Benkovski Byala
0.30

allows per match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte
1.26
Benkovski Byala
3.60

finishing

Svetkavitsa Targovishte+0.00on par
Benkovski Byala+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svetkavitsa Targovishte ↓

Benkovski Byala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Svetkavitsa Targovishte or draw
91%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte or Benkovski Byala
85%
Draw or Benkovski Byala
25%

Winning margin

Svetkavitsa Targovishte wins by 2+
53%
Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Svetkavitsa Targovishte 1+ goals
92%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 2+ goals
72%
Svetkavitsa Targovishte 3+ goals
46%
Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
54%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
18%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Svetkavitsa Targovishte (draw refunded)
89%
Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Benkovski Byala away — creates 0.30, concedes 3.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svetkavitsa Targovishte attack 1.51 + Benkovski Byala defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.56

Benkovski Byala attack 0.30 + Svetkavitsa Targovishte defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Svetkavitsa Targovishte scores more
75%
level
15%
Benkovski Byala scores more
9%

Svetkavitsa Targovishte at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Svetkavitsa Targovishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svetkavitsa Targovishte vs Benkovski Byala — Match Preview

Svetkavitsa Targovishte face Benkovski Byala on November 7, 2020 in this Third League - Northeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Svetkavitsa Targovishte host Benkovski Byala at Stadion Dimitar Burkov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.