Sveikata 0–3 Kauno Žalgiris: Result & Stats | Cup

Sveikata

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Kauno Žalgiris

D. Ikaunieks 80'

Y. Karashima 14'

L. Racic 10'

4/28/2026

Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sveikata1%

×Draw6%

Kauno Žalgiris93%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SveikataExpected goals in this matchKauno Žalgiris

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.22

3.34

Sveikata

0.22

Kauno Žalgiris

3.34

Kauno Žalgiris creates 1418% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

0.20

creates per match

3.69

3.00

allows per match

0.23

creates per match

Sveikata

0.20

Kauno Žalgiris

3.69

allows per match

Sveikata

3.00

Kauno Žalgiris

0.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sveikata+0.00on par

Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No81
Yes19

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sveikata ↓

Kauno Žalgiris →

0–03%

0–110%

0–217%

0–319%

0–416%

1–01%

1–12%

1–24%

1–34%

1–43%

2–00%

2–10%

2–20%

2–30%

2–40%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (19%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Sveikata or draw

Sveikata or Kauno Žalgiris

94%

Draw or Kauno Žalgiris

99%

Winning margin

Sveikata wins by 2+

Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+

79%

Team goals

Sveikata 1+ goals

20%

Sveikata 2+ goals

Sveikata 3+ goals

Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals

96%

Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals

84%

Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals

63%

Draw no bet

Sveikata (draw refunded)

Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)

99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sveikata at home — creates 0.20, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Kauno Žalgiris away — creates 3.69, concedes 0.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sveikata attack 0.20 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 0.23 → ÷2 → 0.22

Kauno Žalgiris attack 3.69 + Sveikata defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 93%?"

Sveikata scores more

level

Kauno Žalgiris scores more

93%

Kauno Žalgiris at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

L. Racic

14'

Y. Karashima

80'

D. Ikaunieks

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff