Svay Rieng 1–4 Than Quang Ninh: Result & Stats

Svay Rieng

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Than Quang Ninh

3/11/2020

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Phnom Penh National Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Svay Rieng43%

×Draw20%

Than Quang Ninh37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Svay RiengExpected goals in this matchThan Quang Ninh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

2.17

Svay Rieng

2.33

Than Quang Ninh

2.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.33

creates per match

2.33

2.00

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Svay Rieng

2.33

Than Quang Ninh

2.33

allows per match

Svay Rieng

2.00

Than Quang Ninh

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Svay Rieng+0.00on par

Than Quang Ninh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svay Rieng ↓

Than Quang Ninh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Svay Rieng or draw

63%

Svay Rieng or Than Quang Ninh

80%

Draw or Than Quang Ninh

57%

Winning margin

Svay Rieng wins by 2+

25%

Than Quang Ninh wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Svay Rieng 1+ goals

90%

Svay Rieng 2+ goals

67%

Svay Rieng 3+ goals

41%

Than Quang Ninh 1+ goals

89%

Than Quang Ninh 2+ goals

64%

Than Quang Ninh 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Svay Rieng (draw refunded)

54%

Than Quang Ninh (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svay Rieng at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Than Quang Ninh away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svay Rieng attack 2.33 + Than Quang Ninh defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Than Quang Ninh attack 2.33 + Svay Rieng defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Svay Rieng scores more

43%

level

20%

Than Quang Ninh scores more

37%

Svay Rieng at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Svay Rieng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff