Svay Rieng 0–1 PSM Makassar: Result & Stats

Svay Rieng

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

PSM Makassar

1/8/2025

ASEAN Club Championship · Group Stage - 3Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Svay Rieng57%

×Draw24%

PSM Makassar19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Svay RiengExpected goals in this matchPSM Makassar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.86

Svay Rieng

1.70

PSM Makassar

0.86

Svay Rieng creates 98% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.40

creates per match

0.33

1.40

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Svay Rieng

2.40

PSM Makassar

0.33

allows per match

Svay Rieng

1.40

PSM Makassar

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Svay Rieng+0.00on par

PSM Makassar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svay Rieng ↓

PSM Makassar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Svay Rieng or draw

81%

Svay Rieng or PSM Makassar

76%

Draw or PSM Makassar

43%

Winning margin

Svay Rieng wins by 2+

32%

PSM Makassar wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Svay Rieng 1+ goals

82%

Svay Rieng 2+ goals

51%

Svay Rieng 3+ goals

24%

PSM Makassar 1+ goals

58%

PSM Makassar 2+ goals

21%

PSM Makassar 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Svay Rieng (draw refunded)

75%

PSM Makassar (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svay Rieng at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

PSM Makassar away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svay Rieng attack 2.40 + PSM Makassar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

PSM Makassar attack 0.33 + Svay Rieng defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Svay Rieng scores more

57%

level

24%

PSM Makassar scores more

19%

Svay Rieng at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Svay Rieng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff