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Svay Rieng vs Ceres — AFC Cup 2018

Svay Rieng
Svay Rieng
CANC
00:00
Ceres
Ceres
9/26/2020AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Phnom Penh National Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Svay Rieng33%
×Draw21%
Ceres46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svay Rieng
1.77
Ceres
2.11

Ceres creates 19% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Svay Rieng
2.33
Ceres
2.22

allows per match

Svay Rieng
2.00
Ceres
1.22

finishing

Svay Rieng+0.00on par
Ceres+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svay Rieng ↓

Ceres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Svay Rieng or draw
54%
Svay Rieng or Ceres
79%
Draw or Ceres
67%

Winning margin

Svay Rieng wins by 2+
17%
Ceres wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Svay Rieng 1+ goals
83%
Svay Rieng 2+ goals
53%
Svay Rieng 3+ goals
26%
Ceres 1+ goals
88%
Ceres 2+ goals
62%
Ceres 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Svay Rieng (draw refunded)
42%
Ceres (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svay Rieng at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Ceres away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svay Rieng attack 2.33 + Ceres defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ceres attack 2.22 + Svay Rieng defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Svay Rieng scores more
33%
level
21%
Ceres scores more
46%

Ceres at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Svay Rieng host Ceres

September 26, 2020: Svay Rieng take on Ceres in AFC Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Svay Rieng host Ceres at Phnom Penh National Olympic Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.