Svačić 3–2 NAŠK Našice: Result & Stats

Svačić

FT

3 – 2

NAŠK Našice

10/6/2024

League #217 · East - 7Igralište NK Svačić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Svačić56%

×Draw20%

NAŠK Našice24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SvačićExpected goals in this matchNAŠK Našice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.43

Svačić

2.29

NAŠK Našice

1.43

Svačić creates 60% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 28 away

2.33

creates per match

0.86

2.00

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Svačić

2.33

NAŠK Našice

0.86

allows per match

Svačić

2.00

NAŠK Našice

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Svačić+0.00on par

NAŠK Našice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svačić ↓

NAŠK Našice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Svačić or draw

76%

Svačić or NAŠK Našice

80%

Draw or NAŠK Našice

44%

Winning margin

Svačić wins by 2+

35%

NAŠK Našice wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Svačić 1+ goals

90%

Svačić 2+ goals

66%

Svačić 3+ goals

40%

NAŠK Našice 1+ goals

76%

NAŠK Našice 2+ goals

42%

NAŠK Našice 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Svačić (draw refunded)

71%

NAŠK Našice (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svačić at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

NAŠK Našice away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svačić attack 2.33 + NAŠK Našice defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.29

NAŠK Našice attack 0.86 + Svačić defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Svačić scores more

56%

level

20%

NAŠK Našice scores more

24%

Svačić at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Svačić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff