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SV Wehen vs Karlsruher SC — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Wehen
SV Wehen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Karlsruher SC
Karlsruher SC
7/28/20192. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 1BRITA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

SV Wehen34%
×Draw24%
Karlsruher SC42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wehen
1.45
Karlsruher SC
1.62

Karlsruher SC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 119 away

creates per match

SV Wehen
1.19
Karlsruher SC
1.43

allows per match

SV Wehen
1.81
Karlsruher SC
1.71

finishing

SV Wehen+0.00on par
Karlsruher SC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wehen ↓

Karlsruher SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

SV Wehen or draw
58%
SV Wehen or Karlsruher SC
76%
Draw or Karlsruher SC
66%

Winning margin

SV Wehen wins by 2+
16%
Karlsruher SC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

SV Wehen 1+ goals
77%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
42%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
18%
Karlsruher SC 1+ goals
80%
Karlsruher SC 2+ goals
48%
Karlsruher SC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

SV Wehen (draw refunded)
45%
Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wehen at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

Karlsruher SC away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.71 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wehen attack 1.19 + Karlsruher SC defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.45

Karlsruher SC attack 1.43 + SV Wehen defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SV Wehen scores more
34%
level
24%
Karlsruher SC scores more
42%

Karlsruher SC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Karlsruher SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SV Wehen vs Karlsruher SC

Karlsruher SC beat SV Wehen 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on July 28, 2019.

The match was played at BRITA-Arena in Wiesbaden.