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SV Wehen vs Holstein Kiel — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Wehen
SV Wehen
FT
3 – 6
HT: 2 – 4
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
11/23/20192. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 14BRITA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

SV Wehen31%
×Draw24%
Holstein Kiel45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wehen
1.36
Holstein Kiel
1.70

Holstein Kiel creates 25% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 118 away

creates per match

SV Wehen
1.19
Holstein Kiel
1.58

allows per match

SV Wehen
1.81
Holstein Kiel
1.53

finishing

SV Wehen+0.00on par
Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wehen ↓

Holstein Kiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

SV Wehen or draw
55%
SV Wehen or Holstein Kiel
76%
Draw or Holstein Kiel
69%

Winning margin

SV Wehen wins by 2+
14%
Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

SV Wehen 1+ goals
74%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
39%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
16%
Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
82%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
51%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

SV Wehen (draw refunded)
40%
Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wehen at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

Holstein Kiel away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.53 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wehen attack 1.19 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Holstein Kiel attack 1.58 + SV Wehen defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SV Wehen scores more
31%
level
24%
Holstein Kiel scores more
45%

Holstein Kiel at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: SV Wehen 3–6 Holstein Kiel

Holstein Kiel beat SV Wehen 6-3 in 2. Bundesliga on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at BRITA-Arena in Wiesbaden.