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SV Wehen vs Bayern München — DFB Pokal 2018

SV Wehen
SV Wehen
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Bayern München
Bayern München
F. Kaya 69', 64'
H. Kane 90', 16' (pen)
M. Olise 51'
8/27/2025DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 1st RoundBRITA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SV Wehen10%
×Draw14%
Bayern München77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wehen
0.96
Bayern München
2.93

Bayern München creates 205% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 24 away

creates per match

SV Wehen
1.00
Bayern München
3.46

allows per match

SV Wehen
2.40
Bayern München
0.92

finishing

SV Wehen+0.00on par
Bayern München+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wehen ↓

Bayern München →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

SV Wehen or draw
23%
SV Wehen or Bayern München
86%
Draw or Bayern München
90%

Winning margin

SV Wehen wins by 2+
3%
Bayern München wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

SV Wehen 1+ goals
62%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
25%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
7%
Bayern München 1+ goals
94%
Bayern München 2+ goals
78%
Bayern München 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

SV Wehen (draw refunded)
11%
Bayern München (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wehen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Bayern München away — creates 3.46, concedes 0.92 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wehen attack 1.00 + Bayern München defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Bayern München attack 3.46 + SV Wehen defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

SV Wehen scores more
10%
level
14%
Bayern München scores more
77%

Bayern München at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Bayern München will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
F. KayaSV WehenSV Wehen · F
9.3

Match Events

16'
H. KanePenalty
49'
Aleksandar Pavlović
51'
M. Olise
53'
Niklas May
59'
M. Nejad← R. Johansson
59'
M. Flotho← N. Agrafiotis
64'
F. Kaya↳ N. May
67'
L. Goretzka← A. Pavlovic
67'
S. Gnabry← L. Karl
69'
F. Kaya↳ M. Flotho
71'
F. Greilinger← D. Bogicevic
71'
O. Wohlers← S. Mockenhaupt
77'
K. Laimer← S. Boey
78'
J. Lewald← F. Kaya
78'
J. Stanisic← R. Guerreiro
90'
H. Kane↳ J. Stanisic

Possession

21%SV

Shots

6SV

Pass accuracy

45%SV

Statistics

SVBayern
Overview
21%Possession79%
6Total Shots22
0Corners7
12Fouls8
Shots
6Total Shots22
2On Target15
1Off Target5
3Blocked2
4Inside Box19
2Outside Box3
Passing
21%Possession79%
244Total Passes905
185Accurate Passes847
76%Pass Accuracy94%
Goalkeeping
10Saves0
Discipline
12Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides5

Match Recap: SV Wehen vs Bayern München

Bayern München beat SV Wehen 3-2 in DFB Pokal on August 27, 2025.

Goals: H. Kane (16' pen, 90'), M. Olise (51'), F. Kaya (64', 69').

Bayern München controlled possession (79%) and registered 22 shots to 6.

The match was played at BRITA-Arena in Wiesbaden.