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SV Wallern vs Zebau Bad Ischl — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

SV Wallern
SV Wallern
FT
4 – 2
Zebau Bad Ischl
Zebau Bad Ischl
3/6/2020Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 16Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

SV Wallern59%
×Draw18%
Zebau Bad Ischl23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wallern
2.82
Zebau Bad Ischl
1.74

SV Wallern creates 62% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 29 away

creates per match

SV Wallern
3.09
Zebau Bad Ischl
2.14

allows per match

SV Wallern
1.34
Zebau Bad Ischl
2.55

finishing

SV Wallern+0.00on par
Zebau Bad Ischl+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wallern ↓

Zebau Bad Ischl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

SV Wallern or draw
77%
SV Wallern or Zebau Bad Ischl
82%
Draw or Zebau Bad Ischl
41%

Winning margin

SV Wallern wins by 2+
40%
Zebau Bad Ischl wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SV Wallern 1+ goals
94%
SV Wallern 2+ goals
77%
SV Wallern 3+ goals
52%
Zebau Bad Ischl 1+ goals
82%
Zebau Bad Ischl 2+ goals
52%
Zebau Bad Ischl 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

SV Wallern (draw refunded)
72%
Zebau Bad Ischl (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wallern at home — creates 3.09, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

Zebau Bad Ischl away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.55 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wallern attack 3.09 + Zebau Bad Ischl defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.82

Zebau Bad Ischl attack 2.14 + SV Wallern defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

SV Wallern scores more
59%
level
18%
Zebau Bad Ischl scores more
23%

SV Wallern at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "SV Wallern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SV Wallern vs Zebau Bad Ischl

SV Wallern beat Zebau Bad Ischl 4-2 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on March 6, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern in Wallern an der Trattnach.