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SV Wallern vs Stadl-Paura — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

SV Wallern
SV Wallern
FT
12 – 0
Stadl-Paura
Stadl-Paura
11/4/2022Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 14Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

SV Wallern96%
×Draw3%
Stadl-Paura1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wallern
5.54
Stadl-Paura
0.67

SV Wallern creates 727% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 7 away

creates per match

SV Wallern
3.09
Stadl-Paura
0.00

allows per match

SV Wallern
1.34
Stadl-Paura
8.00

finishing

SV Wallern+0.00on par
Stadl-Paura+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wallern ↓

Stadl-Paura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (12%) · grid covers 52% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
80%20%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

SV Wallern or draw
99%
SV Wallern or Stadl-Paura
97%
Draw or Stadl-Paura
4%

Winning margin

SV Wallern wins by 2+
89%
Stadl-Paura wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

SV Wallern 1+ goals
99%
SV Wallern 2+ goals
96%
SV Wallern 3+ goals
87%
Stadl-Paura 1+ goals
49%
Stadl-Paura 2+ goals
15%
Stadl-Paura 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

SV Wallern (draw refunded)
99%
Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wallern at home — creates 3.09, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

Stadl-Paura away — creates 0.00, concedes 8.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wallern attack 3.09 + Stadl-Paura defence 8.00 → ÷2 → 5.54

Stadl-Paura attack 0.00 + SV Wallern defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 96%?"

SV Wallern scores more
96%
level
3%
Stadl-Paura scores more
1%

SV Wallern at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "SV Wallern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SV Wallern vs Stadl-Paura

SV Wallern beat Stadl-Paura 12-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on November 4, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern in Wallern an der Trattnach.