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SV Wallern vs St. Martin i.M. — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

SV Wallern
SV Wallern
FT
6 – 2
St. Martin i.M.
St. Martin i.M.
9/23/2022Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 8Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

SV Wallern56%
×Draw20%
St. Martin i.M.24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wallern
2.36
St. Martin i.M.
1.50

SV Wallern creates 57% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 89 away

creates per match

SV Wallern
3.09
St. Martin i.M.
1.65

allows per match

SV Wallern
1.34
St. Martin i.M.
1.64

finishing

SV Wallern+0.00on par
St. Martin i.M.+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wallern ↓

St. Martin i.M. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

SV Wallern or draw
76%
SV Wallern or St. Martin i.M.
80%
Draw or St. Martin i.M.
44%

Winning margin

SV Wallern wins by 2+
35%
St. Martin i.M. wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SV Wallern 1+ goals
90%
SV Wallern 2+ goals
68%
SV Wallern 3+ goals
41%
St. Martin i.M. 1+ goals
78%
St. Martin i.M. 2+ goals
44%
St. Martin i.M. 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

SV Wallern (draw refunded)
70%
St. Martin i.M. (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wallern at home — creates 3.09, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

St. Martin i.M. away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.64 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wallern attack 3.09 + St. Martin i.M. defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.36

St. Martin i.M. attack 1.65 + SV Wallern defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

SV Wallern scores more
56%
level
20%
St. Martin i.M. scores more
24%

SV Wallern at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "SV Wallern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: SV Wallern 6–2 St. Martin i.M.

SV Wallern beat St. Martin i.M. 6-2 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on September 23, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern in Wallern an der Trattnach.