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SV Wallern vs Grün Weiß Micheldorf — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

SV Wallern
SV Wallern
CANC
15:00
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
6/5/2021Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 29Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

SV Wallern64%
×Draw18%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wallern
2.60
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
1.35

SV Wallern creates 93% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 89 away

creates per match

SV Wallern
3.09
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
1.36

allows per match

SV Wallern
1.34
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
2.12

finishing

SV Wallern+0.00on par
Grün Weiß Micheldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wallern ↓

Grün Weiß Micheldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

SV Wallern or draw
82%
SV Wallern or Grün Weiß Micheldorf
82%
Draw or Grün Weiß Micheldorf
36%

Winning margin

SV Wallern wins by 2+
43%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

SV Wallern 1+ goals
92%
SV Wallern 2+ goals
73%
SV Wallern 3+ goals
47%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 1+ goals
74%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 2+ goals
39%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

SV Wallern (draw refunded)
78%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wallern at home — creates 3.09, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

Grün Weiß Micheldorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.12 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wallern attack 3.09 + Grün Weiß Micheldorf defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.60

Grün Weiß Micheldorf attack 1.36 + SV Wallern defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

SV Wallern scores more
64%
level
18%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf scores more
18%

SV Wallern at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "SV Wallern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SV Wallern face Grün Weiß Micheldorf (Landesliga - Oberosterreich)

Landesliga - Oberosterreich returns with SV Wallern hosting Grün Weiß Micheldorf. Match starts June 5, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

SV Wallern host Grün Weiß Micheldorf at Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.