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SV Wallern vs Friedburg / Pöndorf — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

SV Wallern
SV Wallern
CANC
15:00
Friedburg / Pöndorf
Friedburg / Pöndorf
5/22/2021Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 27Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

SV Wallern58%
×Draw19%
Friedburg / Pöndorf23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wallern
2.56
Friedburg / Pöndorf
1.60

SV Wallern creates 60% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 89 away

creates per match

SV Wallern
3.09
Friedburg / Pöndorf
1.85

allows per match

SV Wallern
1.34
Friedburg / Pöndorf
2.03

finishing

SV Wallern+0.00on par
Friedburg / Pöndorf+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wallern ↓

Friedburg / Pöndorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

SV Wallern or draw
77%
SV Wallern or Friedburg / Pöndorf
81%
Draw or Friedburg / Pöndorf
42%

Winning margin

SV Wallern wins by 2+
37%
Friedburg / Pöndorf wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SV Wallern 1+ goals
92%
SV Wallern 2+ goals
72%
SV Wallern 3+ goals
46%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 1+ goals
80%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 2+ goals
47%
Friedburg / Pöndorf 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

SV Wallern (draw refunded)
71%
Friedburg / Pöndorf (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wallern at home — creates 3.09, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

Friedburg / Pöndorf away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.03 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wallern attack 3.09 + Friedburg / Pöndorf defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.56

Friedburg / Pöndorf attack 1.85 + SV Wallern defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

SV Wallern scores more
58%
level
19%
Friedburg / Pöndorf scores more
23%

SV Wallern at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "SV Wallern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SV Wallern face Friedburg / Pöndorf (Landesliga - Oberosterreich)

Landesliga - Oberosterreich returns with SV Wallern hosting Friedburg / Pöndorf. Match starts May 22, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

SV Wallern host Friedburg / Pöndorf at Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.