Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SV Steinbach vs FC Gießen — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

SV Steinbach
SV Steinbach
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
FC Gießen
FC Gießen
9/9/2023Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 7Rasenplatz 2 Burghaun-Steinbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

SV Steinbach29%
×Draw22%
FC Gießen49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Steinbach
1.41
FC Gießen
1.90

FC Gießen creates 35% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 53 away

creates per match

SV Steinbach
1.33
FC Gießen
1.91

allows per match

SV Steinbach
1.89
FC Gießen
1.49

finishing

SV Steinbach+0.00on par
FC Gießen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Steinbach ↓

FC Gießen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

SV Steinbach or draw
51%
SV Steinbach or FC Gießen
78%
Draw or FC Gießen
71%

Winning margin

SV Steinbach wins by 2+
13%
FC Gießen wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

SV Steinbach 1+ goals
76%
SV Steinbach 2+ goals
41%
SV Steinbach 3+ goals
17%
FC Gießen 1+ goals
85%
FC Gießen 2+ goals
56%
FC Gießen 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

SV Steinbach (draw refunded)
37%
FC Gießen (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Steinbach at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.89 · 76 matches

FC Gießen away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.49 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Steinbach attack 1.33 + FC Gießen defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.41

FC Gießen attack 1.91 + SV Steinbach defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SV Steinbach scores more
29%
level
22%
FC Gießen scores more
49%

FC Gießen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Gießen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: SV Steinbach 0–2 FC Gießen

FC Gießen beat SV Steinbach 2-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Rasenplatz 2 Burghaun-Steinbach in Burghaun.