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SV Steinbach vs Eintracht Stadtallendorf — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

SV Steinbach
SV Steinbach
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
9/3/2023Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 6Rasenplatz 2 Burghaun-Steinbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

SV Steinbach30%
×Draw23%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Steinbach
1.35
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.75

Eintracht Stadtallendorf creates 30% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 85 away

creates per match

SV Steinbach
1.33
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.60

allows per match

SV Steinbach
1.89
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.36

finishing

SV Steinbach+0.00on par
Eintracht Stadtallendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Steinbach ↓

Eintracht Stadtallendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SV Steinbach or draw
53%
SV Steinbach or Eintracht Stadtallendorf
77%
Draw or Eintracht Stadtallendorf
70%

Winning margin

SV Steinbach wins by 2+
13%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

SV Steinbach 1+ goals
74%
SV Steinbach 2+ goals
39%
SV Steinbach 3+ goals
15%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 1+ goals
83%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 2+ goals
52%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

SV Steinbach (draw refunded)
39%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Steinbach at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.89 · 76 matches

Eintracht Stadtallendorf away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.36 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Steinbach attack 1.33 + Eintracht Stadtallendorf defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Eintracht Stadtallendorf attack 1.60 + SV Steinbach defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SV Steinbach scores more
30%
level
23%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf scores more
47%

Eintracht Stadtallendorf at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Eintracht Stadtallendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: SV Steinbach 3–3 Eintracht Stadtallendorf

SV Steinbach and Eintracht Stadtallendorf drew 3-3 in Oberliga - Hessen on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Rasenplatz 2 Burghaun-Steinbach in Burghaun.