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SV Sandhausen vs Sportfreunde Siegen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SV Sandhausen
SV Sandhausen
FT
6 – 3
HT: 4 – 2
Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
L. de Meester 86', 69'
M. Wagner 38'
J. Herrmann 37', 23'
P. Testroet 12'
A. Guclu 85'
D. Willms 15', 10'
1/17/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

SV Sandhausen58%
×Draw18%
Sportfreunde Siegen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Sandhausen
2.90
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.90

SV Sandhausen creates 53% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

SV Sandhausen
2.30
Sportfreunde Siegen
2.00

allows per match

SV Sandhausen
1.80
Sportfreunde Siegen
3.50

finishing

SV Sandhausen+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Sandhausen ↓

Sportfreunde Siegen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

SV Sandhausen or draw
75%
SV Sandhausen or Sportfreunde Siegen
82%
Draw or Sportfreunde Siegen
42%

Winning margin

SV Sandhausen wins by 2+
38%
Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SV Sandhausen 1+ goals
94%
SV Sandhausen 2+ goals
78%
SV Sandhausen 3+ goals
54%
Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
85%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
56%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

SV Sandhausen (draw refunded)
70%
Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Sandhausen at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

Sportfreunde Siegen away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Sandhausen attack 2.30 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.90

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 2.00 + SV Sandhausen defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

SV Sandhausen scores more
58%
level
18%
Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
25%

SV Sandhausen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "SV Sandhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
D. Willms
12'
P. Testroet
15'
D. Willms
23'
J. Herrmann
37'
J. Herrmann
38'
M. Wagner
69'
L. de Meester
85'
A. Guclu
86'
L. de Meester
SV
Sportfreunde
Olaf Janssen
Manager: Olaf Janssen
Thorsten Nehrbauer
Manager: Thorsten Nehrbauer

Match Recap: SV Sandhausen vs Sportfreunde Siegen

SV Sandhausen beat Sportfreunde Siegen 6-3 in Friendlies Clubs on January 17, 2026.

Goals: D. Willms (10', 15'), P. Testroet (12'), J. Herrmann (23', 37'), M. Wagner (38'), L. de Meester (69', 86'), A. Guclu (85').