SV Sandhausen 2–1 Jahn Regensburg: Result & Stats

SV Sandhausen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Jahn Regensburg

D. Đumić 52'

M. Papela 16'

P. Owusu 64'

4/30/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 30BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

SV Sandhausen43%

×Draw25%

Jahn Regensburg32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV SandhausenExpected goals in this matchJahn Regensburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.30

SV Sandhausen

1.55

Jahn Regensburg

1.30

SV Sandhausen creates 19% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 102 away

1.16

creates per match

1.16

1.45

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

SV Sandhausen

1.16

Jahn Regensburg

1.16

allows per match

SV Sandhausen

1.45

Jahn Regensburg

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Sandhausen+0.00on par

Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Sandhausen ↓

Jahn Regensburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

SV Sandhausen or draw

68%

SV Sandhausen or Jahn Regensburg

75%

Draw or Jahn Regensburg

57%

Winning margin

SV Sandhausen wins by 2+

22%

Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

SV Sandhausen 1+ goals

79%

SV Sandhausen 2+ goals

46%

SV Sandhausen 3+ goals

20%

Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals

73%

Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals

37%

Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

SV Sandhausen (draw refunded)

57%

Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Sandhausen at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 97 matches

Jahn Regensburg away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.95 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Sandhausen attack 1.16 + Jahn Regensburg defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.55

Jahn Regensburg attack 1.16 + SV Sandhausen defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SV Sandhausen scores more

43%

level

25%

Jahn Regensburg scores more

32%

SV Sandhausen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SV Sandhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

M. Papela

SV Sandhausen · M

8.0

Match Events

16'

M. Papela

29'

Kemal Ademi

43'

Jan Elvedi

46'

A. Yildirim← S. Singh

46'

A. Albers← C. Makridis

52'

D. Đumić↳ C. Okoroji

61'

J. Ganda← K. Ademi

64'

C. Viet← M. Thalhammer

64'

J. Mees← K. Faber

64'

P. Owusu↳ A. Albers

65'

O. Diakhité← C. Okoroji

66'

C. Kinsombi← A. Esswein

81'

D. Kinsombi← E. Zenga

85'

Leon Guwara

87'

S. Kennedy← J. Elvedi

89'

Benedikt Gimber

90+2'

Matondo-Merveille Papela

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SVJahn

Overview

45%Possession55%

10Total Shots11

9Corners5

16Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots11

4On Target3

2Off Target8

4Blocked0

5Inside Box9

5Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

316Total Passes388

192Accurate Passes265

61%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

4Offsides2