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SV Sandhausen vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SV Sandhausen
SV Sandhausen
FT
2 – 0
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
1/14/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Halle KRH DFB-Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SV Sandhausen51%
×Draw20%
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Sandhausen
2.38
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
1.80

SV Sandhausen creates 32% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

SV Sandhausen
2.56
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
1.60

allows per match

SV Sandhausen
2.00
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
2.20

finishing

SV Sandhausen+0.00on par
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Sandhausen ↓

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

SV Sandhausen or draw
70%
SV Sandhausen or FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
80%
Draw or FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
49%

Winning margin

SV Sandhausen wins by 2+
31%
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SV Sandhausen 1+ goals
91%
SV Sandhausen 2+ goals
68%
SV Sandhausen 3+ goals
42%
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 1+ goals
83%
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 2+ goals
54%
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

SV Sandhausen (draw refunded)
63%
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Sandhausen at home — creates 2.56, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Sandhausen attack 2.56 + FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.38

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt attack 1.60 + SV Sandhausen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SV Sandhausen scores more
51%
level
20%
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt scores more
30%

SV Sandhausen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SV Sandhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SV Sandhausen vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

SV Sandhausen beat FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Halle KRH DFB-Campus in Frankfurt am Main.