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SV Sandhausen vs Bayer Leverkusen — DFB Pokal 2018

SV Sandhausen
SV Sandhausen
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
11/1/2023DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 2nd RoundGP Stadion am Hardtwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SV Sandhausen6%
×Draw11%
Bayer Leverkusen84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Sandhausen
0.73
Bayer Leverkusen
3.16

Bayer Leverkusen creates 333% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

SV Sandhausen
0.80
Bayer Leverkusen
3.12

allows per match

SV Sandhausen
3.20
Bayer Leverkusen
0.65

finishing

SV Sandhausen+0.00on par
Bayer Leverkusen+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Sandhausen ↓

Bayer Leverkusen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–211%
0–311%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

SV Sandhausen or draw
16%
SV Sandhausen or Bayer Leverkusen
89%
Draw or Bayer Leverkusen
94%

Winning margin

SV Sandhausen wins by 2+
1%
Bayer Leverkusen wins by 2+
65%

Team goals

SV Sandhausen 1+ goals
52%
SV Sandhausen 2+ goals
17%
SV Sandhausen 3+ goals
4%
Bayer Leverkusen 1+ goals
96%
Bayer Leverkusen 2+ goals
82%
Bayer Leverkusen 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

SV Sandhausen (draw refunded)
6%
Bayer Leverkusen (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Sandhausen at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Bayer Leverkusen away — creates 3.12, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Sandhausen attack 0.80 + Bayer Leverkusen defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.73

Bayer Leverkusen attack 3.12 + SV Sandhausen defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 3.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

SV Sandhausen scores more
6%
level
11%
Bayer Leverkusen scores more
84%

Bayer Leverkusen at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SV Sandhausen 2 – 5 Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen beat SV Sandhausen 5-2 in DFB Pokal on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at GP Stadion am Hardtwald in Sandhausen.